SANTA ANA (CNS) – Control of the Orange County Board of Supervisors is at stake in Tuesday’s primary, with Fifth District Supervisor Katrina Foley facing two challengers, including Assemblywoman Diane Dixon, D-Newport Beach.
“It should be a pretty tight race,” Will O’Neill, the chairman of the Republican Party of Orange County, told City News Service.
Foley, a Democrat, was first elected to the nonpartisan board in a 2021 special election in a five-candidate race consisting of three Republicans and two Democrats, and a majority was not required to win.
She was re-elected in 2022, defeating then-state Sen. Patricia Bates, R-Laguna Niguel, 51.3%-48.7%.
O’Neill said unions have spent about $900,000 for Foley, who also raised about $400,000.
“That’s a lot of money,” he said, adding, “And whatever the party has spent.”
Dixon received about $300,000 from the Lincoln Club and raised about $250,000 herself, he said. The party is pouring about $200,000 into the race, he added.
“That one is certainly a flash point on which party is going to be controlling the Orange County Board of Supervisors,” O’Neill said.
There is a third candidate, Lucy Vellema, a special education instructor, seeking to win the South Orange County seat.
If no candidate receives a majority, the top two finishers will meet in the November general election.
Orange County Democratic Party Chair Florice Hoffman said that’s what her party is aiming to avoid, pushing for Foley to exceed 50% and avoid the runoff.
“I believe Katrina will win outright tomorrow,” Hoffman said in an interview Monday. “I do think Republicans have spent a lot of money to keep her from winning outright. It is a Republican district but Katrina is one of the hardest working people I know.”
UC Irvine political science professor Louis DeSipio told CNS that Foley is “a good retail politician, and she’s been able to speak across the interests of the district.”
Dixon “has sort of been around the track a few times” so she has strong name recognition, DeSipio added.
Meanwhile, Fourth District voters will choose a successor to Democrat Doug Chaffee, who is barred from running for re-election because of term limits. The candidates are Buena Park Mayor Connor Traut, Fullerton Mayor Fred Jung, Orange County Board of Education Trustee Tim Shaw and La Habra City Councilwoman Rose Espinoza.
Most observers believe the race will come down to Traut, a Democrat, and Shaw, a Republican.
O’Neill also expects this one to be a “tight race.”
Democrat Vicente Sarmiento is favored in his bid for a second term representing the Second District.
The only congressional race to feature some suspense on election night likely will be in the 40th District, with Republican incumbents Young Kim and Ken Calvert facing off following the congressional redistricting approved by voters in November.
The other candidates are Nina Linh, with no party preference, and Democrats Lisa Ramirez, Joe Kerr, Francis Xavier Hoffman, Claude Keissieh and Esther Kim Varet. Observers think Varet has the best chance of making it to the general election among the Democrats.
DeSipio views the race as a referendum on the future of the Republican Party in Orange County.
“You have competing visions in the primary,” DeSipio said. “My gut instinct is the district favors Young Kim a little bit.”
DeSipio said he did see one poll showing Calvert with a slight edge.
“I still think a Democrat would still be at a disadvantage” in the district since it leans Republican, DeSipio said.
“The only question for me is how does the Republican Party want to present itself going forward?” DeSipio said. “It is it more older white office holders, part of the Reagan coalition who moved nearer to the right like Calvert as the electorate has moved to the right. Or Kim, the new face of California Republicans, who can speak broadly to ethnic minorities.”
O’Neill said turnout so far “is really strong on the Republican side, definitely trending ahead of four years ago.”
Hoffman said the feedback she has been getting from Democratic voters is they’re holding onto their ballots until the last minute because of the governor’s race.
“We’re going to have a lot of voting today and tomorrow, mainly because of the governor’s race,” Hoffman said Monday. “I think people were spooked by what happened with (former Rep. Eric) Swalwell. They’re waiting for the very last day to vote in case something happens.”
As of the end of the day Monday, about 450,000 vote-by-mail ballots were turned in, Orange County Registrar Bob Page said. As of 2:20 p.m. Tuesday, about 30,000 voters cast ballots in vote centers, he said.
On Monday, 13,090 voters cast ballots in vote centers, he said.
“That’s common for election day to see a significant jump,” Page said.
The mail-in ballot returns mirrors the 2020 primary, he said. There were 442,598 ballots turned in by mail then but in-person voting was higher, he added.
In the 2024 primary, 356,788 vote-by-mail ballots were turned and 343,983 were turned in for the 2022 primary, Page said.
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