SANTA ANA (CNS) – A handful of Southern California congressional races on Tuesday’s ballot could determine which political party holds power in the House next year, with two key races in Orange County, one in Los Angeles County and another in Riverside County, experts say.
UC Irvine political science professor Lou DeSipio told City News Service he had not anticipated that the race between Democrat Derek Tran and Rep. Michelle Steel, R-Huntington Beach in Orange County’s 45th Congressional District would be so tight.
“I thought it was a slam dunk for Steel, but (Tran’s) raised a lot of money, got his name out there and built some support,” DeSipio said. “My gut is the incumbent usually hangs on to those seats, but it could go either way. Democrats are clearly making an investment in that district.”
In the 47th Congressional District, former Assemblyman Scott Baugh is making another run for the Orange County seat after losing to Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine, 51.7%-48.3% in 2022. Baugh is facing off Tuesday with Sen. Dave Min, D-Irvine.
DeSipio said Democrats invested heavily in Min’s campaign.
“They recognize if they want to win the House they have to pick up a couple of seats and a couple in New York. Tran is one of a handful they can pick up,” he said.
The 45th District race has featured heated exchanges, with Steel, who is Korean, at one point saying she was “more Vietnamese” than Tran, an Army veteran who says his “parents fled the Communist regime in Vietnam.”
“She tried to question Tran’s Vietnamese-ness, and he effectively pushed back on that,” DeSipio said.
Vietnamese voters are a key Republican bloc in the district, and Steel in the past has allied herself politically with former Orange County Supervisor Andrew Do, who resigned his seat and pleaded guilty to a federal bribery charge last week.
DeSipio said it is possible the “second generation (of Vietnamese in the district) are more open than their parents and they might be open to a Democrat, who is Vietnamese. He’s proven to be a serious candidate. He does know how to raise money and bring in national support.”
Orange County Democratic Party Chairwoman Ada Briceno said she “absolutely” believes Do may prove a drag on Steel. Briceno added that she has “talked to many Republicans in that district crossing over for Tran. Not only crossing over and voting for him but putting their money where their mouth is and hosting events and helping us lead the charge against Steel.”
Orange County Republican Party Chairman Fred Whitaker said “all four congressional seats are critical for us. There’s only a four-seat House majority right now so our seats are critical to the majority.”
Whitaker said the party was “very confident” in Steel’s campaign.
“The great thing is she’s a very hard campaigner and never leaves anything to chance,” Whitaker said. “We’re very optimistic.”
Cal State Fullerton political science professor Matt Jarvis said he believes Republicans will hang on to a majority in the House.
“I think Republicans are likely to hold on to a narrow majority, maybe 222-223, because I think there’s going to be a heck of a lot more ticket- splitting than we’ve seen in recent years,” Jarvis told City News Service. “I think there’s going to be a lot of people who can’t vote for (Donald) Trump, but who are very unhappy with inflation, and I think the only way they can send that message is to put Republicans in Congress.”
Jarvis predicted that Min’s drunken driving conviction may hurt his chances to defeating Baugh in the 47th District.
“The drunk driving thing really seems to have had legs,” Jarvis said. “I hear it a lot. It’s penetrated.”
Jarvis said he sees more campaign signs supporting Steel in that district.
“I’m in Placentia and I see a lot of Steel signs — more than Tran,” he said. “And she has a cash advantage. I see a ton of Steel ads on streaming radio.”
It is a mystery how the Vietnamese vote will break down in the district, he said. For “half a century” Vietnamese residents have voted Republican as the “anti-communist” party, he said.
But with a Vietnamese Democrat on the ballot, that could change, he said.
The race between Democrat Will Rollins and Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, in Riverside County’s 41st District will be interesting because it’s a showdown between the more conservative part of the district in the Inland Empire and the more liberal Palm Springs, he said.
“That will be really interesting to see if it’s possible to shift the center of gravity in that district,” Jarvis said.
Calvert, who was first elected in 1992, defeated Rollins, 52.3%-47.7%, in 2022.
In northern Los Angeles County, the 27th District race between Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita, and Democrat George Whitesides, a former NASA chief of staff, is also being closely watched.
The pair have been spending heavily on advertisements in the waning days of the campaign, with the candidates trading barbs on abortion rights, immigration and crime. The district has traditionally been a conservative stronghold, but thanks in part to the 2020 redrawing of the district boundaries, Democrats now outnumber Republicans, but the large number of independent voters could turn the tide.
Ironically, Californians on election night may have to look to similar congressional districts on the East Coast for a clue as to the outcome of the battle for House control, since the ballot-counting in California will take longer, Jarvis said.
“We’ll be watching other districts in other states to give us a guess who’s in control of Congress,” he said.
Republican congressional candidates in Orange County would be likely cruising to victory if Trump were not on the ballot, Jarvis said.
“Trump is box office poison in urban Orange County,” he said. “It’s the reason why Democrats won the entire county in 2018. If you get rid of him the county is still a little leaning red.”
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