Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom is reportedly “neck and neck” with Vice President JD Vance in Polymarket‘s latest 2028 election odds.
Newsom, 58, who is listed as the favorite to win the Democratic nomination in several early national polls, and Vance, 41, listed as a heavy favorite for the Republican nomination, are both listed at 17% odds, according to the live prediction market.
Newsom had 20% of support among Democratic likely primary voters in the Emerson College Polling survey released last month, which was the most among the specific potential candidates mentioned, but still less than the majority 24% of undecided respondents. Former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, who had previously led all potential Democratic primary candidates in an Emerson College Polling survey conducted last June, was second at 16%, followed by former Vice President Kamala Harris at 13%, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio–Cortez at 9%, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro at 7%, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear at 5%, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker at 3% and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer at 2%.
“Candidates are starting to carve out their 2028 bases: AOC has a plurality support among voters under 30 (20%), Buttigieg leads among women with 20%, along with plurality support of postgraduates (21%), while Newsom leads among voters over 50 (23%). The Black vote backs Harris (36%),” said Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball.
Vance had an overwhelming lead among potential 2028 Republican candidates with a majority 52%. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is second at 20% followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 6%, Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy at 4%, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley at 3%, Sen. Ted Cruz at 1% and 11% claiming to be undecided.
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