Meteorologists say there is now a 100 percent chance that a powerful Super El Niño will form by November, as revealed in the latest May forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). According to the forecast, this event could be one of the strongest on record, potentially reaching or surpassing temperature levels set in 1877 and 2015. This would mean central Pacific Ocean waters could warm by 3 degrees Celsius—about 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit—above normal, a threshold that classifies a “Super” El Niño.
Strong El Niño years typically bring wetter weather to the southern United States and can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, while increasing storm numbers in the Eastern Pacific. The ECMWF’s updated model, shared Wednesday (May 6), predicts above-average rain across the South and potentially beneficial winter months for the Southeast, which is currently experiencing severe drought.
While a major El Niño event usually means fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic, the forecast does not show a dramatic drop in the number of Atlantic storms so far. The ECMWF is calling for 13 named storms and six hurricanes this season, close to the average of 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, and suggests the strongest impacts could arrive later in the season. Meanwhile, Atlantic water temperatures are expected to remain above average, further complicating the forecast.
Beyond the United States, El Niño patterns can also impact global food and water supplies and have been linked to civil unrest in tropical countries. The Washington Post notes that high sea surface temperatures can lead to food shortages and water-related challenges worldwide.
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins on May 15, followed by the Atlantic season on June 1. As the Super El Niño develops, forecasters and emergency managers will closely monitor its effects on weather patterns, hurricane activity, and drought relief across the United States and beyond.
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