Inflation in the United States slowed for the third consecutive month in June, indicating that the worst price spike in four decades is gradually subsiding. According to a report from the Labor Department, consumer prices fell by 0.1% from May to June, marking the first monthly decline in overall inflation since May 2020. On a year-over-year basis, prices were up 3% in June, a decrease from the 3.3% annual rate in May.
The latest inflation data could persuade Federal Reserve policymakers that inflation is returning to their 2% target. A brief surge in inflation earlier this year had led Fed officials to reduce their expectations for interest rate cuts. They stated that they would need to see several months of mild price increases to feel confident enough to cut their key rate from its 23-year high.
“This confirms that there is very little chance of inflation re-accelerating and that it’s time for some rate cuts from the Fed,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust, a wealth management firm.
Despite the slowdown in inflation, the costs of food, rent, health care, and other necessities remain much higher than they were before the pandemic. This has been a source of public discontent and a potential threat to President Joe Biden’s re-election bid.
Excluding volatile food and energy costs, core prices climbed just 0.1% from May to June, below the 0.2% increase in the previous month. Measured from a year ago, core prices rose 3.3% in June, down from 3.4% in May. Core prices are thought to provide a particularly telling signal of where inflation is likely headed.
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