California Gov. Gavin Newsom is reportedly the current favorite to win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, according to the latest Emerson College Polling survey released on Thursday (February 26).
Newsom has 20% of support among Democratic likely primary voters in the survey, which is the most among the specific potential candidates mentioned, but still less than the majority 24% of undecided respondents. Former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, who had previously led all potential Democratic primary candidates in an Emerson College Polling survey conducted last June, is currently second at 16%, followed by former Vice President Kamala Harris at 13%, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio–Cortez at 9%, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro at 7%, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear at 5%, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker at 3% and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer at 2%.
“Candidates are starting to carve out their 2028 bases: AOC has a plurality support among voters under 30 (20%), Buttigieg leads among women with 20%, along with plurality support of postgraduates (21%), while Newsom leads among voters over 50 (23%). The Black vote backs Harris (36%),” said Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball.
Vice President JD Vance has an overwhelming lead among potential 2028 Republican candidates with a majority 52%. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is second at 20% followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 6%, Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy at 4%, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley at 3%, Sen. Ted Cruz at 1% and 11% claiming to be undecided.
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