Famed polling expert Nate Silver said expects President Donald Trump‘s approval rating to continue dropping in his latest Silver Bulletin blog published on Tuesday (February 3).
Trump is reported to have an average net approval rating of -14.3%, which is slightly above his second term low of -15.0%, while the number of Americans who strongly disapprove of his job performance hit a new second term high of 45.7% on Monday (February 2), with only 24.2% saying they strongly approve his performance, according to Silver.
“How should we expect Trump’s approval rating to change over the next few weeks? Currently, most of the highest-weighted polls in our average include some data from after Alex Pretti’s killing on January 24, but went into the field a few days before the 24th (meaning not all respondents were aware of the killing when they took the poll). As the killing becomes fully baked into the polls, Trump’s numbers might decline further,” Silver wrote.
Trump is reported to have a -11.8% net polling average with a 42.8% approval rating and a 54.6% disapproval rating, according to Real Clear Polling’s average of several national polls from January 12 to February 3, which includes Morning Consult, CBS News, the Economist/YouGov, Reuters/Ipsos and FOX News. Silver gained notoriety for successfully predicting 49 of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election, as well as former President Obama’s re-election win in 2012 and former President Joe Biden‘s win in the 2020 election.
The pollster was, however, criticized for giving Hillary Clinton a 71.4% chance of winning over Trump after the former president 304 electoral college votes to win the election.
“I think people shouldn’t have been so surprised,” Silver told the Harvard Gazette in 2017. “Clinton was the favorite, but the polls showed, in our view, particularly at the end, a highly competitive race in the Electoral College. We had him with a 30 percent chance, and that’s a pretty likely occurrence. Why did people think it was much less than that? I think there are a few things.”
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