NOAA released its final 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook Thursday, maintaining its forecast for a below-average season due to the influence of a powerful Super El Niño expected to last through fall. The agency projects there will be seven to 13 named storms, two to six hurricanes, and zero to two major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger) this year. This is a slight reduction from NOAA’s initial forecast in May, which predicted eight to 14 named storms and up to three major hurricanes. The latest numbers include Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha, which already formed in the Gulf earlier this summer.
A Super El Niño occurs when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific rise at least two degrees Celsius above average for three months. This year’s event has reached 2.07 degrees above average, which NOAA says could make it the strongest El Niño since record-keeping began in 1950. During El Niño events, stronger winds and sinking air in the Atlantic reduce hurricane formation by disrupting the conditions storms need to develop. In July, wind shear over the Caribbean Sea was the highest recorded since 1979, making it particularly difficult for storms to strengthen.
NOAA now gives a 75% probability for a below-average season, up from 55% in May. On average, the Atlantic sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes each year. If 2026 ends with lower-than-normal activity, it will be only the second such season in the past decade, NOAA said.
While the Super El Niño is expected to limit storm development in the open Atlantic, forecasters caution that “homegrown” tropical systems may still form quickly close to the U.S. coast or in the Gulf of Mexico. These storms are typically weaker but can impact land with little warning.
Looking ahead, computer models suggest El Niño could reach historic strength by the end of the year and persist into spring 2027. However, the NOAA notes that a record-breaking El Niño could lead to atmospheric impacts not previously seen, so forecasters will continue to monitor its development closely.
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