Federal scientists have declared a strong El Niño event is almost certain to develop this year, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reporting a 97% chance of it being “strong” or “very strong” by December.
This could significantly affect California, particularly in the southern region, where above-average rainfall could lead to flash floods and landslides.
According to the Desert Sun, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has increased the likelihood of a very strong El Niño to 81%, up from 63% in June. Ocean temperatures in the Pacific are breaking records, with some areas nearly 3 degrees Celsius above average. This warming could rival some of the strongest El Niño events since 1950.
In California, a strong El Niño typically results in wetter winters, especially in Southern California and the Central Coast. However, while increased precipitation can alleviate drought concerns, it also raises the risk of flooding and landslides. The state may face challenges in balancing flood control with water storage for future dry periods, particularly if warmer storms result in rain rather than snow in the Sierra Nevada, reducing the natural snowpack that serves as a crucial water reservoir.
The Los Angeles Times reports that the warm waters associated with El Niño could also exacerbate heat waves on land and at sea, already worsened by human-caused global warming. The last “very strong” El Niño in 2015-16 did not deliver the expected rainfall in Southern California, highlighting the uncertainty of its impacts.
Additionally, SFGATE notes that El Niño can lead to increased Pacific hurricane activity, potentially affecting California’s coast with large swells and flooding. The marine heat wave currently affecting the Pacific is expected to persist, further complicating the situation.
Recent Comments