Nearly half of American adults—about 126 million people—are expected to be living with obesity by 2035, according to a new study in the Journal of the American Medical Association. The research shows the number of adults with obesity has more than doubled over the past 30 years, surging from 34.7 million in 1990 to an estimated 107 million in 2022. The upward trend is projected to continue, increasing the national obesity rate from 42.5 percent in 2022 to 46.9 percent by 2035, as reported by ABC News.
Researchers analyzed body mass index (BMI) data from over 11 million Americans, breaking it down by state, age, sex, and race. The study found that women are more affected than men, with the highest rates occurring among Black women, at 57%, and Hispanic women with 49% in 2022. Middle-aged adults, especially those between 45 and 64 years old, have the highest obesity rates, but the fastest increases have been seen in young women under 35. According to Dr. Catherine O. Johnson, lead research scientist at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, this trend means younger women may face earlier onset of health issues like diabetes and heart disease.
Geographically, obesity is most common in Midwestern and Southern states. For example, in 2022, Oklahoma had the highest female obesity rate, while Indiana led for men. By 2035, projections suggest South Dakota will have the highest female obesity rate, and Indiana the highest for men.
Obesity-related health problems, including heart disease, diabetes, lung disease, and some cancers, are expected to become more common as obesity rates rise. Health care costs tied to obesity reached nearly $200 billion in 2019 and are only expected to grow. The findings suggest that both public health strategies and clinical interventions are urgently needed to address these trends and reduce health disparities.
If the projections hold, the U.S. healthcare system may face greater challenges in managing chronic diseases and related costs. The study’s authors and other experts urge investments in prevention, early intervention, and equitable access to care to help change the current trajectory.
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