Iran Supreme Leader’s Overthrowing Odds Spike Again

The odds of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei being overthrown have once again spiked above 60% amid nationwide protests, according to Polymarket.

“BREAKING: Iran’s Supreme Leader now projected to lose power this year, as he threatens U.S. troops in the region. The odds have surged past 60%,” Polymarket wrote on its X account on Sunday (January 11).

Odds for Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei being overthrown spiked to 60% on Friday (January 9), according to Polymarket, amid widespread anti-government protests. The death toll in connection with the Iranian protests has spiked to at least 538 people, with even more feared to be dead, activists announced via the Associated Press.

Officials have faced difficulties in gauging the demonstrations abroad as internet is down and phone lines are cut off in Iran, according to the Associated Press.

Khamenei claimed were started by “vandals” destroying public properties and acting on behalf of U.S. President Donald Trump, who had reported that peaceful protesters were being killed and claimed Washington could “come to their rescue.”

The supreme leader warned that the government wouldn’t tolerate “mercenaries for foreigners” in a broadcast on national Iranian television via Reuters.

“The Islamic Republic came to power through the blood of hundreds of thousands of honourable people. It will not back down in the face of vandals,” Khamenei said.

The supreme leader’s comments followed an internet blackout in Iran amid the ongoing protests. NetBlocks, an internet watchdog, said the blackout and other forms of censorship were imposed by authorities in response to the turmoil.

Several videos of the protests have, however, been shared on social media by opposition groups and human rights monitors, which includes protesters calling for Khamenei to be overthrown, as well as the return of Mohammad Reze Shah Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last king. Pahlavi, who now lives in Virginia, is the heir to Iran’s last shah, who was overthrown during the Islamic Revolution in 1979.